An arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu may not change the war, but it could affect Israel’s allies

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants on Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas commander Ibrahim Al-Masri. The court’s judges stated there were “reasonable grounds” to believe the three bear “criminal responsibility” for actions during the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

Israel previously claimed to have killed Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, in a July airstrike, but Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied his death.

An international lawyer and analyst, Nomi Bar-Yaacov of Chatham House, noted that the warrants were anticipated due to the prolonged conflict and escalating casualties in Gaza. She highlighted the dire humanitarian situation, with tens of thousands in Gaza in urgent need of medical care amid rising death tolls.

While the decision was condemned by Israel, it was welcomed by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and many in Gaza. Bar-Yaacov pointed out that the warrants severely limit Netanyahu’s ability to travel, especially to ICC member states like the UK, France, and Germany, which are obligated to act on ICC arrest warrants. However, she expressed doubt about his arrest, as he is unlikely to visit such nations.

The United States, not a member of the ICC, is not required to act on the warrants. Bar-Yaacov suggested Netanyahu may strengthen ties with Donald Trump, now re-elected as U.S. president, as the move could deepen global divisions.

While calling the ICC action significant, Bar-Yaacov questioned its practical impact on ending the war or alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.